色狐入口
Although many rightfully link Canada鈥檚 economic and demographic growth to a permanent resident boom in recent years, suggests that Canada may be underestimating the effect that temporary migration has on the national economy in this country.
According to economist Marc Desormeaux, Canada鈥檚 economy could be 鈥渉it hard鈥� if the country experiences a decline in non-permanent resident (NPR) migration in the face of a period of economic weakness.
The current state of non-permanent resident migration in Canada
Non-permanent (temporary) resident migration is at the root of Canada鈥檚 population growth in 鈥渕ost provinces.鈥�
Note: Temporary residents are a category of migrants to Canada including groups such as foreign workers, international students and refugees
Specifically, foreign worker migration (those with work permits) has led the charge with respect to NPR growth in the last year, as this group has accounted for 70% of all growth in this category. This was found to be true both nationally and in Canada鈥檚 four biggest provinces (but more on that later).
Results and Impacts
In this study, predictive modelling 鈥� including an upside scenario, downside scenario and worst-case scenario 鈥� is used to project how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada鈥檚 four largest provinces* (Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec and Alberta) would be impacted based on different levels of NPR admission across Canada in 2023 (2023-2024) and 2024 (2024-2025).
*These provinces made up almost 90% of Canada鈥檚 total GDP in 2022
Understanding that these results vary by province 鈥� between a 0.5 and nearly 2 percentage point drop in GDP in the downside and worst-case scenario projections 鈥� the overall results of this study suggest that all four assessed provinces will see a hit to their GDP if Canada sees a reduction in temporary resident migration.
is that the 鈥渉ealth鈥� of Canada鈥檚 economy would decline as a result of a drop in temporary resident migration. This is because GDP is used to define 鈥渢he monetary value of all finished goods and services made within a country during a specific period.鈥� In other words, a declining GDP, 鈥渦sed to estimate the size of an economy and its growth rate鈥�, would signal a negative short-term economic future across this country.
Some adverse impacts of a declining GDP :
- An economic recession
- A decline in 鈥渞eal income鈥�
- Reduced production
- Increased unemployment
Conclusion: What could happen if temporary resident migration slows across Canada?
NPR admissions across Canada tend to rise and fall in concert with national economic cycles. In other words, NPR admissions across Canada鈥檚 four biggest provinces usually grow when the economy is strong and falter in times of economic struggle.
In light of these results, and expecting a possible recession in the near future, Desjardins that Canada鈥檚 鈥渞ecent population鈥慽nduced boost to economic activity and tax revenues may not last forever.鈥� In other words, temporary migration to Canada must maintain itself through periods of economic volatility if Canada wants to try to avoid having to 鈥済rapple with the immense challenges of a rapidly aging population and a lack of affordable housing supply.鈥�
To accomplish this, Desjardins that Canada needs to produce better data on temporary migration to Canada, as this would help the country 鈥渁ppropriately calibrate labour and housing market policy.鈥�