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Statistics Canada is projecting that Canada could be home to 63 million people by 2073.
Modeling what Statistics Canada refers to as 鈥渧arious projection scenarios鈥�, data for the period of 2023 to 2073 suggests that Canada could be home to anywhere between 47.1 to 87.2 million people in 50 years.
Note: Statistics Canada clarifies that 鈥減rojections are not predictions.鈥� Additionally, the department says that its projections account for 鈥渞ecent trends鈥� as well as 鈥渢he opinions of population experts who were consulted specifically during the development of these projections.鈥�
The projection of 63 million, however, is based on Statistics Canada鈥檚 medium-growth scenario (M1).
How is Canada鈥檚 population going to grow?
This projected growth, of roughly 21 million* over 50 years, is despite the aging of Canada鈥檚 natural population.
*Canada鈥檚 population, led by immigration, has recently surpassed 41 million less than a year after reaching the 40 million milestone
In fact, by 2073, 鈥渙lder adults鈥� (aged 65 and older) in Canada could make up between 21.9% and 32.3% of the total population.
Simultaneously, the percentage of children (0 to 14 years old) in Canada鈥檚 population is projected to decrease by 2073. This is according to 鈥渕ost鈥� of Statistics Canada鈥檚 projection models, including the M1 scenario that produced the 63 million population figure.
Overall, due to the projected increase in older residents and the decrease in children across the country, Canada鈥檚 average age would reach between 42.6 and 50.1 years in 2073. This is up from an average age of 41.6 years in 2023.
Challenges for Canada鈥檚 population
As stated in the : 鈥渇ertility has reached a record-low level in 2022, and life expectancy has decreased for three years in a row (from 2020 to 2022).鈥�
In fact, according to Statistics Canada, a collection of factors including Canada鈥檚 aging population (as well as the country鈥檚 low fertility rate and decreasing life expectancy) may explain why Canada鈥檚 annual population growth rate is projected to drop by 0.33% over the next half-century 鈥� from an average of 1.12% across the last 30 years to 0.79% in 2072/2073 (based on M1 projections).
This means that even recent increases in Canada鈥檚 population must actively work against two strong trends that reduce the population. Not only does a lower life expectancy reduce the population at the higher end, but a lower fertility rate means that Canada cannot produce the new people needed to replenish the country鈥檚 population locally. For instance, the . Rectifying natural reductions in the population through domestic births requires a fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman.
Furthermore (as mentioned already) another factor adds context to Canada鈥檚 natural population鈥攁n increasingly aging population. Older populations in countries like Canada can produce strain on Canada鈥檚 social systems such as healthcare. This is because these systems reduce costs to the individual by placing the majority of the burden on the working population at large鈥攖hrough taxes for example.
In the context of an aging population, this means that costs incurred through healthcare are increased while the number of people who can bear these costs for the country at large are reduced鈥攚ith fewer young people able to enter and contribute to the Canadian labour force.
The key ingredient
The above trends are combatted through a key strategy: immigration. Immigration not only contributes to 鈥攊t is crucial towards filling labour gaps in critical sectors and provides Canada with the young people needed to demographically balance the country鈥檚 population. In fact, (for the first time in 65 years) due to immigration, reducing from 40.9 years to 40.6 years of age.
Importantly immigration is not a one-time solution. Per : 鈥溾�he effect of receiving a high number of immigrants in 2022 and 2023 on the decline of the average and median ages is temporary, as population aging is unavoidable.鈥� While much has been made of Canada鈥檚 ability to accept immigrants in recent months, data from Statistics Canada indicates that (if the current dynamic holds) a steady stream of new immigrants every year is vital to the country鈥檚 economy, demography, and quality of life.
Immigrants in turn stand to benefit from this relationship. Not only can newcomers (permanent and temporary residents alike) benefit from a higher standard of living, in a multicultural and immigrant-friendly society鈥擲tatistics Canada data also reveals that (depending on how early they arrive in Canada) newcomers tend to out-earn the natural-born Canadian population by their mid-twenties.